And Now For Something Completely Different

It has been pretty heavy weather here of late, eh? Seal hunts, taxes, rape...it seems like one of those blogs where life is grim and life is earnest, and no speck of frivolity lightens the picture.

So I'm going to talk about the Oscars, which I don't care about and think are ridiculous but watch anyway so I can gripe about how good movies never win. And in case you think this is going to be some sort of serious analysis, never fear, because I've seen hardly any of the films up for the top awards. It's as ignorant an analysis as you're going to find anywhere. Shades of Gray: I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, but it's free.

So without further ado, on to the haphazard predicitions!

Best Supporting Actor: I have seen all of two of these actors, Jake Gyllenhaal in Brokeback Mountain and George Clooney in Syriana. While George Clooney is my hero, he really didn't, as far as I can tell, do anything particularly special in Syriana. It was a decent performance. Jake Gyllenhall, in my opinion, was better than Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain, and it seems to be the conventional wisdom that Ledger's going to win Best Actor. So unless Matt Dillon, Paul Giamatti or William Hurt were incandescently good in Crash, Cinderella Man, or A History of Violence respectively, I think it should go to Gyllenhaal. I think it probably will, as well.

Best Supporting Actress: We're breaking with Shades of Gray editorial policy here in actually forcasting an Oscar race in which we've seen more than half of the nominees (Yes, we're using the royal we. We're pretentious bastards.) Rachel Weisz, while good, wasn't anything particularly memorable in The Constant Gardener-this appears to be the Leading Actress version of Clooney's nomination. Michelle Williams was brilliant in Brokeback Mountain. So was Amy Adams in Junebug. Both of them, interestingly, were playing wives of husbands who didn't love them, for differing reasons. I think Adams was a hair better, but Williams was in the bigger movie. The two I didn't see are Frances McDormand in North Country and Catherine Keener in Capote. Both are very talented actresses, and could very well deserve it (I'm starting to feel like Jackie Harvey here.) I'm going to predict Williams winning it, though.

Best Actress: Things are back to normal here, as I've seen exactly one of the actresses up for this award-Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line. She was very good in it, which isn't surprising, because she's an excellent actress. I doubt that Charlize Theron will win a second Oscar for North Country so soon after winning for Monster, and I think Judi Dench will also be hamstrung by her previous Oscar for Shakespeare in Love. Keira Knightley is, I think, unlikely to win for Pride & Prejudice, so that leaves Felicity Huffman in TransAmerica. I think the technical difficulty of a woman playing a man trying to become a woman is self-evident, and from what I understand she's extremely good. Fun though it would be to imagine right-wingers' heads exploding in anger across America as a movie about gay cowboys sweeps the Oscars with an assist from a movie about a transsexual, I think Witherspoon might actually win this as the "safe" pick.

Best Actor: Heath Ledger is probably going to win. Unless Philip Seymour Hoffman does for Capote. As to who deserves it, I don't know, because I haven't seen Capote. If you don't like the analysis, send me an email and I'll send you your money back registered post.

As to the other guys, I've seen both David Strathairn in Good Night, and Good Luck and Joaquin Phoenix in Walk the Line. Both were good, Strathairn was better, and neither was close to Ledger. Terrence Howard is the fifth nominee for his role in Hustle and Flow. Given that I think more people are talking about Phoenix in this category, I doubt he will win. I'm calling it for Ledger.

Best Picture: This category shares all of its nominees with Best Direction, and I think both awards will go to Brokeback Mountain. Full disclosure: I've only seen it and Good Night, and Good Luck. I understand Crash is very good, and it appears to have a lot of "buzz," as Jackie and I like to say, but I doubt think it'll catch Brokeback, which really does deserve the hype. I think Capote is here on the strength of Hoffman and Keener's acting (though how would I know?) and I don't think Munich is going to win. Finally, in the category of things I actually know something about, Good Night, and Good Luck, while a nice pick-me-up for us lefties (and lord knows we can use one right now) really isn't Best Picture material.

Finally, as to the awards show itself. I actually don't have terribly high expectations for Jon Stewart-I think that the show will be a straitjacket for his best political stuff, and while he's a smart enough guy to be funny anyway, I don't think the Oscars really leads to memorable comedy from the host most of the time.

So there you have it. The first in what I hope will be a regular series, Ian's Fearless and Ignorant Predictions. All Predictions Right, Or Your Money Back.